Musk supports heat pumps, and related concept stocks have gained momentum. Dayuan Pump and Sunrise Oriental have raised their limit
On the news, Tesla CEO Elon Musk announced the "third chapter of the grand plan" at the Tesla Investor Day event on March 1 Eastern Time, detailing the "path to a fully sustainable energy future for the planet".
Musk divided the implementation path of this "secret grand plan" into five steps. Part of it is the use of renewable energy, which requires large-scale deployment of solar energy. The second part is the electrification of vehicles, and Musk stated that it requires the production of 20 million electric vehicles per year to achieve this goal. Tesla demonstrated the hypothesis of a fleet of approximately 85 million cars. Tesla emphasized the energy efficiency of electric vehicles. Boiling a pot of spaghetti with boiling water can drive the Model 3 for one kilometer. The third part is to shift households, businesses, and industries towards heat pumps. Heat pumps can transfer energy from the outside of a house to the inside, which will reduce energy consumption by 33 times for building heating. From an industry perspective, heat pumps have paved the way for improving efficiency.
It is reported that heat pumps can be used in heating, hot water and drying. According to different heat sources, they can be divided into air source/water source/geothermal heat pump, of which air source heat pump plays a leading role. Compared to air conditioners and water heaters, heat pumps have advantages such as more energy conservation and environmental protection, better user experience, wide applicability, and low operating costs. The main disadvantages are higher initial purchase and installation costs, and larger equipment volume. Overseas heat pump technology is relatively mature, and the penetration rate in the United States and Japan is relatively high. The global heat pump installation volume from 2010 to 2020 was CAGR 6.4%, and a total of 177 million units were installed in 2020. Sales increased by 13% in 2021. The development of China's heat pump industry is clearly driven by policies. Driven by the dual carbon policy, the total sales of heat pumps increased by 13% in the 21st year, and the market size of air source heat pumps increased by 24%, reaching 22.7 billion yuan.
Dongwu Securities pointed out that in the context of energy transformation, countries around the world are actively deploying heat pumps, introducing support policies and deployment goals for heat pumps, and driving the rapid development of the heat pump industry. At the same time, with the continuous maturity of heat pump technology and the expansion of application fields, the penetration rates of photovoltaic heat pumps, new energy vehicle thermal management systems, drying, and other technologies continue to increase, and the demand is improving in the long term. By 2030, the global potential heat pump market size will reach over 2 trillion yuan, with Europe currently having a low heat pump penetration rate and significant room for long-term improvement. The market size CAGR is expected to reach 26% from 2021 to 2030. Based on China's heat pump penetration rate, we estimate that China's heat pump sales volume is expected to reach 15-19% from 2020 to 2030.